A sketch to explain how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence. This can occur because, when calculating the fraction of cases that are severe, the denominator now includes many re-infections that had previously been averted. A thread. 1/8 pic.twitter.com/XxrYHnb6XY
What if we could measure your antibody levels shortly after vaccination and know how well you are protected? Would future vaccines eliciting the same antibody levels provide equally good protection? That is the idea behind an immune correlates analysis. Thread on a new preprint. pic.twitter.com/ujv3UWGsiS
